Chord Rises with Oil, While MicroStrategy Slips as Bitcoin Pares Gains

Last week, the Income Strategy’s representative account fell -2.30% (net of fees), underperforming the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index’s -0.52% loss and underperforming the S&P 500’s -0.93% loss. (Exhibit 1). The strategy ended the week up 9.43% YTD, or 844 basis points ahead of the high yield index and 10 basis points behind the S&P 500.

Exhibit 1: Performance of Income Strategy Representative Account Net of Fees Versus High Yield, Equity Indices, Through 4/5/20241

Time Period Income Strategy Representative Account ICE BofA Master High Yield II Index S&P 500 Index
Last Week (3/29- 4/5) -2.30% -0.52% -0.93%
MTD -2.30% -0.52% -0.93%
QTD -2.30% -0.52% -0.93%
YTD 9.43% 0.99% 9.53%
1 Year 31.70% 10.59% 29.24%
5 Year 5.99% 3.84% 14.36%
10 Year 4.65% 4.30% 12.90%
Inception (annualized since 2/28/2014) 4.61% 4.30% 12.81%
Source: Bloomberg, Miller Value Partners.

Five equities comprised last week’s top 5 contributors. Chord Energy (CHRD) rose with oil prices, as WTI crude oil futures rose above $85 last week for the first time since October 2023. GEO Group (GEO) sold ~$1.73B in bonds and loans last week to refinance some of its outstanding debt. Shares of Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) advanced above the stock’s respective 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. There was no price-changing news for Public Policy Holding Company (PPHC LN) or UGI Corp (UGI).

Exhibit 2: Significant Contributors to Income Strategy Representative Account Performance, 03/29/24 – 04/05/24

Name Type
Chord Energy Corp Equity
Public Policy Holding Company Equity
GEO Group Inc Equity
Alliance Resource Partners Equity
UGI Corp Equity
Source: Miller Value Partners.

Four equities and one bond comprised last week’s top 5 detractors. MicroStrategy Inc 0.75% 12/15/2025 fell in sympathy with Bitcoin which slumped below $68K. Bread Financial Holdings (BFH) fell despite Wolfe Research upgrading the consumer finance company to Outperform with a price target of $48, or ~35.3% above Friday’s closing market price. The analyst attributed the upgrade to evidence that delinquency rate formations may be rolling over and BFH’s ability to mitigate lower late fees, while the company’s return on tangible equity could stabilize. There was no price-changing news for Stellantis NV (STLA), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), or OneMain Holdings (OMF).

Exhibit 3: Significant Detractors From Income Strategy Representative Account Performance, 03/29/24 – 04/05/24

Name Type
MicroStrategy Inc 0.75% 12/15/2025 Bond
Stellantis NV Equity
Western Alliance Bancorp Equity
Bread Financial Holdings Equity
OneMain Holdings Equity
Source: Miller Value Partners.