CTO Realty Gains on Strong Earnings Report, While Quad Graphics Falls Despite Earnings Beat
Last week, the Income Strategy’s representative account fell -0.42% (net of fees), underperforming the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index’s 0.47% gain and underperforming the S&P 500’s 1.68% gain. (Exhibit 1). The strategy ended the week up 0.28% YTD, or in-line with the high yield index and 663 basis points behind the S&P 500.
Exhibit 1: Performance of Income Strategy Representative Account Net of Fees Versus High Yield, Equity Indices, Through 2/23/20241
Time Period | Income Strategy Representative Account | ICE BofA Master High Yield II Index | S&P 500 Index |
Last Week (2/16 – 2/23) | -0.42% | 0.47% | 1.68% |
MTD | 2.44% | 0.25% | 5.15% |
QTD | 0.28% | 0.28% | 6.91% |
YTD | 0.28% | -0.28% | 6.91% |
1 Year | 9.10% | 11.29% | 28.88% |
5 Year | 4.24% | 4.10% | 14.67% |
Inception (annualized since 2/28/2014) | 3.76% | 4.28% | 12.70% |
Five equities comprised last week’s top 5 contributors. CTO Realty (CTO) reported 4Q23 revenue of $29.9MM, +32.6% year-over-year (Y/Y), ahead of consensus of $26.4MM, and Core FFO/share of $0.48, +41.2% Y/Y, ahead of consensus of $0.33. Same-property net-operating income (NOI) increased 4.7% Y/Y in the quarter, while the company was able to sign 16 comparable leases in the quarter for 74.2K square feet that resulted in comparable rent per square foot growth of 17.9%. For FY24, management is guiding for Core FFO/share of $1.60, or a P/FFO multiple of ~10.8x, which incorporates the expectation for same-property NOI growth of 3% Y/Y. There was no price-changing news for Stellantis NV (STLA), Viatris (VTRS), or Buckle (BKE) last week.
Exhibit 2: Significant Contributors to Income Strategy Representative Account Performance, 02/16/24 – 02/23/24
Name | Type |
Stellantis NV | Equity |
CTO Realty Growth Inc. | Equity |
Viatris Inc. | Equity |
The Buckle Inc. | Equity |
***RECENTLY ADDED SECURITY*** | Equity |
Five equities comprised last week’s top 5 detractors. Quad Graphics (QUAD) reported 4Q23 net sales of $787.9MM, -11.0% Y/Y, ahead of consensus of $758.0MM, and Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, compared to 4Q22 EPS of $0.41, ahead of consensus of $0.13. The company generated FY23 free cash flow (FCF) of $76.8MM, or a FCF yield of 27.5%, and management repurchased $12.6MM worth of shares during the year (4.5% of market cap) and also reinstated its quarterly dividend of $0.05/share (3.8% yield). For FY24, management is guiding for net sales to fall -7% Y/Y, Adjusted earnings before income, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $225MM (Enterprise Value (EV)/EBITDA of ~3.8x), capital expenditure (Capex) of $65MM, and FCF of $60MM (21.5% FCF yield), at the respective midpoints. Boise Cascade (BCC) reported 4Q23 sales of $1.64B, +1.0% Y/Y, in-line with consensus, and EPS of $2.44, -17.3% Y/Y, below consensus of $2.51. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at $160.6MM, or a margin of 9.8%, -179bps Y/Y, while FCF was $50.1MM in the quarter, bringing FY23 FCF to $472.0MM, or a FCF/EV yield of 10.0%. During FY23, the company paid $8.70/share in dividends and repurchased $6MM worth of shares, resulting in total shareholder returns of $352.5MM, or a 6.9% shareholders’ yield. There was no price-changing news for Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), GEO Group (GEO), or Public Policy Holding Company (PPHC LN) last week.
Name | Type |
Quad Graphics | Equity |
Boise Cascade Co | Equity |
Western Alliance Bancorp | Equity |
GEO Group Inc. | Equity |
Public Policy Holding Company Inc. | Equity |