Familiar Macro, Different Market Set-up

Bill Miller IV on the Current Market

Read Bill’s current market letter: Feels Like 2022 But Isn’t

Key Takeaways

2022 parallel—but better backdrop: Geopolitics are hitting growth again, but inflation is much lower today, leaving the economy in a stronger position.
Growth slowing at the margin: GDP expectations dropped sharply, driven by weaker consumer spending and housing.
Bond market caution: Yield curve flattening signals slower economic momentum.
Higher cost of capital: The easy-money era is over, reducing support for long-duration growth stocks.
Value still favored: Cash-generating, value-oriented stocks — especially SMID — remain better positioned.
Growth still expensive: Tech valuations are elevated, implying weaker future returns.

Bottom line: We think the current environment continues to support value over growth.

Highlights from the Q&A

Miller Value uses a bottom-up, macro-aware approach: Investment decisions are driven by company fundamentals, with macro incorporated primarily through scenario analysis rather than top-down positioning.
Skepticism on macro forecasting: Given the poor track record of predicting events like recessions, the focus is on market-implied expectations and identifying security-level mispricings.
Rates and inflation as inputs, not drivers: Market-based inflation expectations (~2.7% over five years) and higher rates inform analysis, particularly around balance sheet strength and debt structure resilience.
Volatility creates opportunity: Macro-driven dislocations often lead to indiscriminate selling, which can present attractive entry points for fundamentally sound businesses.
AI requires execution to justify investment: While AI is a powerful growth driver, current capital intensity implies significant revenue and margin delivery will be needed to support returns.

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Comments from MVP LIVE dated April 16, 2026.

This commentary reflects the views of the author as of the date above and is subject to change. There is no guarantee that any forecast, outlook, or opinion will be realized. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Statements containing ‘may,’ ‘could,’ ‘expect,’ ‘likely,’ or similar words are forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual outcomes may differ materially. Information from third-party sources is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. References to specific investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Portfolio holdings and positioning are subject to change. It should not be assumed that any investment in the securities referenced was or will be profitable.

Figures cited above should be verified against primary sources (e.g., Federal Reserve releases) and may reflect market estimates. Statements reflect our interpretation of public data; exact figures may vary by source and revisions.

The information presented should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security and should not be relied upon as investment advice. It should not be assumed that any purchase or sale decisions will be profitable or will equal the performance of any security mentioned. References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only. Portfolio composition is shown as of a point in time and is subject to change without notice.

The views expressed in this commentary reflect those of the author as of the date of the commentary. Any views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions, and Miller Value Partners disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Adviser believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact, or misleading information. This content may be dated and may not have been independently audited by Miller Value Partners.

A yield curve is a line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality, but differing maturity dates. SMID is Small and Mid Cap.