Real investing involves the risk of permanent loss of capital. The securities mentioned are not an actual portfolio and are not being offered for investment as a model. Figures cited are as of date of publication and can change over time. Miller Value Partners undertakes no obligation to update these. The Contest is for internal engagement and idea generation and does not reflect actual client account management or investment results. Individual names discussed below are not recommendations and involve material risks, including the risk of loss. Any performance figures referenced are illustrative, based on internally tracked contest selections under artificial rules, and are not actual client results or investment performance.
One of MVP’s annual traditions is the Stock Contest, which helps build camaraderie across the Firm by encouraging colleagues to share ideas, debate themes, and think creatively about markets. The Contest is an informal internal game that involves each team member – regardless of role or seniority – picking ten stocks they think are likely to do well in the year ahead. The companies have to be actively traded on U.S. public exchanges and >$500M in market cap. Each set of picks starts 1/1 on an equal-weighted basis; there’s no trading or closing of positions allowed throughout the year. Team members receive a reward commensurate with their picks’ collective performance at the 12/31 Contest end.
As we’ve highlighted before, besides having fun, the point is to surface big ideas, free from the real constraints actual portfolio managers face. 2026 has so far been an interesting year for the market, with many investors re-evaluating positioning (too bad only real world investors can do anything about it since our contestants are locked in). There are no doubt many names with still-compelling prospects in our contestants’ selections, even if some have already advanced.
The team has done especially well the past three years1, with all eight contestants ending the three-year period with a 20%+ annualized return; the average set of picks was up 41.86% annualized between 2023-2025 (for context, the S&P 500 Index return was 23.01%). The results tend to be volatile, as you might expect given that the parameters of the Contest permit contestants to disregard downside volatility entirely; indeed, the 2022 picks on average ended the year below the S&P 500 Index (albeit from a largely incongruent group of contestants). At the market’s bottom so far this year on March 30, eight of ten contestants were behind the market, and our 2025 contest winner was down more than 2x the market but has since recovered to almost 10% on the year as of April 24th. These results are based on artificial contest rules that differ materially from real-world investing, including equal weighting and no trading, and should not be interpreted as actual or expected investment results.
Speaking of leaders, one benefit of the contest is that it may be surfacing strong idea generation from our Chief Compliance Officer and Chief Operating Officer, whose contest selections have been among the strongest over the period since the beginning of 2023. In a desperate effort to retain my portfolio manager seat, I am nearly keeping pace at 51.5% annualized. These observations reflect an informal contest only and should not be interpreted as evidence of investment advisory performance or predictive ability.
On the heels of one of the most watched drafts, we present to you this year’s picks from the Firm’s three highest annualized participants for the 2026 Contest, along with the rationale for why each security was picked and some off-the-cuff opinion/perspective “direct from the horse’s mouth” for each. It is important to note that each has its own material risks and limitations in the real world. We are also including B3’s picks, given that he was able to outperform the market with real money for 15 consecutive years2, a much harder feat; he’s also off to a good start this year. Past performance, whether actual, illustrative, simulated, or contest-based, is not indicative of future results.
There are 172 trading days (as of 4/28) left to see who ends up at the top of the leaderboard for 2026.
All YTD returns are for the prior 1/1/26 – 4/24/26
The securities listed below are contest selections only and are shown for illustrative purposes. Inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation or indicative of future performance. Views are as of the date indicated and may change without notice.
Chris Anderson
| Ticker | YTD (through 4/24/26) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| AFRM | -14.39% | Affirm is positioned to benefit from lower interest rates and improving consumer sentiment, with additional upside from its expansion into Europe. CEO/founder Max Levchin is widely regarded as a strong operator in fintech. |
| QXO | 8.71% | A weak construction backdrop may allow QXO to acquire assets at attractive valuations, which could position the company to benefit if housing conditions improve. CEO/Founder Brad Jacobs is expected to focus full-time on the company and has a strong track record of large-scale rollups. |
| HOOD | -25.10% | Robinhood may benefit from lower interest rates and increased retail trading activity, as well as clearer digital asset regulation and growth in new trading markets. CEO Vlad Tenev is a founder-operator with a history of product innovation. |
| IONQ | -4.86% | IonQ offers exposure to advanced computing as government, defense, and enterprise investment in quantum technologies continues to develop, with potential for revenue growth over time. |
| RKLB | 14.22% | Rocket Lab is evolving into a broader space systems provider, with growing involvement in defense and national security programs. |
| LUNR | 57.30% | Intuitive Machines is closely tied to NASA’s lunar strategy, with exposure to sustained U.S. investment in lunar exploration and infrastructure. |
| JOBY | -35.61% | Joby’s progress toward FAA certification of its EVTOL aircraft could be supportive, particularly if regulatory timelines evolve. The company also has exposure to defense-related initiatives. |
| RCAT | 48.80% | Red Cat is aligned with increased demand for domestically sourced military drones as procurement priorities continue to shift. The company may benefit from continued government focus on domestic sourcing and defense capabilities. |
| IREN | 34.07% | IREN has exposure to growing data center demand and focuses on energy infrastructure, which is a key industry constraint. The company also has sensitivity to digital asset markets. |
| MSTR | 12.55% | Bitcoin prices are volatile and could be influenced by macro factors such as interest rates and potential legislative developments, including market structure frameworks. Strategy provides leveraged exposure to bitcoin amid continued institutional interest. |
Justin Farrell
| Ticker | YTD (through 4/24/26) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| IBIT | -11.34% | Recent price declines may present an entry point; bitcoin could recover toward prior levels over time depending on market conditions. |
| ASST | 7.05% | The company is pursuing a potential merger, which, if completed, could increase its bitcoin exposure. |
| [advisor-managed fund] | ||
| [advisor-managed fund] | ||
| ETHA | -21.89% | Ethereum has experienced recent volatility; prices could trade higher if broader crypto sentiment improves. |
| LLY | -17.61% | There may be increased demand for GLP-1 therapies as adoption continues to develop. |
| NVDA | 11.68% | NVIDIA is a leading participant in AI chips, with continued demand from data center markets. |
| AVGO | 22.40% | Broadcom provides exposure to AI-related growth and may present an opportunity given recent price movements. |
| AMZN | 14.37% | Amazon could benefit if operating trends improve and growth initiatives gain traction. |
| SBUX | 17.95% | Starbucks may be positioned for a potential rebound following a challenging period. |
Bill Miller IV
| Ticker | YTD (through 4/24/26) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| FIGR | -21.28% | $9B appears to be a low valuation for a company with significant market share in real-world asset tokenization and a large addressable market. |
| Bitcoin | -11.30% | Bitcoin had an off year and could recover if global liquidity conditions improve. |
| MSTR | 12.55% | MicroStrategy trades near NAV and could benefit from its leveraged bitcoin exposure. |
| CROX | 19.64% | Intrinsic value may be meaningfully higher for a high-quality business with a global presence. |
| PINS | -23.06% | Pinterest appears very attractively valued for a high-quality growing business with a strong balance sheet. |
| [advisor-managed fund] | ||
| NBR | 65.54% | Oil trades in contango and the sector is at a big discount to the market; the company is effectively a levered oil bet, which may perform well in an accelerating macro environment or amid global strife. |
| MELI | -8.89% | MercadoLibre trades at a low valuation relative to its history despite 27 consecutive quarters of 30% top-line growth and an 8% free cash flow yield. |
| CPNG | -13.06% | Coupang has been pressured following a data breach but may be stabilizing; it also trades near historically low valuation levels despite a dominant position and large addressable market. |
| WU | -1.98% | Western Union trades at 4.8x EV/EBITDA with a potential boost from stablecoin development; top line and earnings are projected to grow this year, with decent insider buying. |
Bill Miller
| Ticker | YTD (through 4/24/26) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 14.37% | Amazon lagged the market last year by over 1000 bps. The outlook may differ this year. |
| Bitcoin | -11.30% | Bitcoin declined in 2025 while gold, silver, and the S&P 500 rose. Rate cuts and potential Fed easing could provide a catalyst for a rebound. |
| YOU | 57.43% | An exclusive Medicare identity verification contract may open up opportunities in new verticals. The company has no debt and $600 million in cash. |
| CROX | 19.64% | At 7x EPS and a 15% free cash flow yield, Crocs appears inexpensive. A return to growth or spin-off of HEY DUDE could provide upside. |
| ETSY | 13.26% | Etsy is a pure marketplace like eBay, bought back 14% of shares outstanding in 2025, and trades at 13x EPS; it has also traded materially higher in the past. |
| FIG | -53.25% | Adobe offered to buy Figma for $20 billion two years ago before the deal was blocked by regulators. Figma now trades around an $18 billion market cap and has meaningfully increased revenue since Adobe made the offer. |
| FIGR | -21.28% | Figure is a leading player in developing blockchain technology for financial services, with a nascent market and large opportunity as global assets become tokenized. |
| NBIS | 75.81% | Nebius provides cloud services for AI and trades at a meaningful discount to CoreWeave on an enterprise basis. |
| MSTR | 12.55% | Strategy provides amplified exposure to bitcoin price movements. |
| UPS | 9.43% | UPS declined meaningfully from prior highs, could return to growth in 2026, recently broke above its 200-day moving average, has a 6.6% yield, and is buying back shares. |
Contest results are illustrative and based on constructed selections under artificial rules. Contest picks are tracked internally, equal-weighted, and subject to artificial rules, including no trading during the contest period. They do not reflect actual client account management or actual investment results.
Stay connected with us for updates and insights. Subscribe.
Follow us here, here and here.